Terror alert in Indonesia

Dear Readers,

According to multiple sources, the Indonesian government intends to announce the exact date of the execution of the three Bali bombers. This announcement is likely to take place before the end of this month, and could come as early as tomorrow. The government, meantime, has repeatedly vowed to conduct the executions before the end of this year.

In announcing the executions ahead of time, the government arguably makes it more likely that radicals will plan reprisals to coincide with that date. Indeed, it cannot yet be discounted that the cell arrested on Tuesday intended to coincide its fuel storage attack with the fate of the Bali Three. At the very least, clients should expect the following:

When the date of the executions is announced, hard-line Islamic groups will likely spearhead rallies in Jakarta and other urban centers around the country. These will likely be concentrated in front of government buildings, including the presidential palace, the MPR/DPR complex, the National Police headquarters, and some provincial assembly buildings. There may be rallies in front of the embassies and consulates of the U.S., U.K., and Australia.

On the day of the executions, hard-line Islamic groups will likely conduct rallies at those same locations. There is always a chance that these protests could turn violent, just like the protests in Nusa Tenggara Timur devolved into chaos after the Pose Three were shot.

Between the time the executions are announced and the executions take place, bomb hoaxes will be phoned (or sent via SMS) to high-end malls, luxury hotels, and major Western companies.

It cannot be discounted that extremists might stage violent reprisals, including bombings. Given the ease of obtaining explosives in Indonesia (clients need only recall the frequent reports of explosives being confiscated from persons making fish-bombs and firecrackers), and the proven ability of Indonesian terrorists to assemble at least rudimentary bombs (those in Palembang, for example, has assembled simple bombs in Tupperware containers), attacks with explosives are clearly not outside the realm of possibility. Potential targets run the gamut of office buildings with major Western clients, to luxury hotels, prominent malls, police buildings, and (less likely) Western embassies.

In light of such threats, clients should:

• Minimize time spent in front of U.S., U.K. and Australian embassies and consulates when the date of executions is announced, and when the executions actually take place. This is not so much because of the threat of bombings, but because of the possibility of fiery protests by Islamic hard-liners.
• Avoid unnecessary travel to Bali between the time the executions are announced and the executions take place. While in Bali, remain wary for at least a month after the executions take place. In particular, avoid Kuta during weekend nights.
• Avoid travel to Lamongan, East Java. This could be the scene of emotional rallies given that two of the Bali bombers hail from this district.

Thank you, Readers

JS